Course Fit(compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes such as driving distance to predict who performs well at each course DataGolf): 1. His value will be flattened on course history alone -- since his debut in 2020, hes gone T18-7th-T20 but thats OK because its the kind of consistently strong form we want in every investment, not to mention that hes navigated Bay Hill in a variety of conditions to extend that confidence into this weeks fray. Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industrys leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Hes combining solid approach play with a hot putter to throw his name into the mix more consistently. Powers, Golf Digest: Austin Smotherman (200-1, BetMGM) Short knockers who can pure their irons usually fare well here, and thats exactly what Smotherman is. Birdie percentage: Birdies are king this week. While Im happy for him, Im not buying it just yet. Finishing T-50 in Phoenix and T-45 in Los Angeles are certainly not bad results, but they will look bad compared to the high standards that Kim has provided us in his first nine months on tour. Bay Hill also had the longest set of par-3 lengths on average in non-major courses last year. The PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida this week for the 2023 Honda Classic, a tournament that features one of the weakest fields, The West Coast swing is officially over, and that means the PGA Tour heads to Florida. Jon Rahm +550Patrick Cantlay +950Scottie Scheffler +1100Tony Finau +1500Xander Schauffele +1900Will Zalatoris +1900Tom Kim +2000Sungjae Im +2100Cameron Young +2100Sam Burns +2900Si Woo Kim +2900Brian Harman +3400Aaron Wise +4200Tom Hoge +4200Taylor Montgomery +4500Cameron Davis +4800J.T. How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, CACHED OR OTHERWISE USED, EXCEPT WITH THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. 2023 DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS picks 2023: Rory McIlroy's staggering advanced metrics, Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Challenger/Champion. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. While that sounds great, its likely unsustainable. 1 DFS Player. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. Over the past 100 rounds, hes the fourth-best tee-to-green player in the field, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Even at 38 years of age, hes consistently among the longest hitters off the tee, and because of that, hes among the most accurate on approach. Each of the two rivals had claimed the other was always stealing his ideas. Hes played at Bay Hill each of the last three years and hasnt finished worse than T-20. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. Both of those weeks ended in a top 10 for Todd. Hes already proven that it works at Bay Hill, too. 7:52 am ET, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald, You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald's PGA picks and analysis, You can see who he is backing this week at The American Express 2023 at SportsLine, You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald's American Express picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine, visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald's top prop picks for The American Express 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $700 on his PGA Tour picks this season, See full The American Express 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here, Spieth among many chasing at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to not play Players Championship, WATCH: Viktor Hovland drains ace at Arnold Palmer, How to watch 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Report: Pebble Beach will be designated event in 2024, Rahm leads (again) at Bay Hill after Round 1, 2023 American Express odds, field, expert picks, bets, Spieth among chasers at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to skip 2023 Players Championship, Report: PGA Tour to reduce fields of designated events, Kirk breaks 8-year drought with emotional Honda win. The good news is that List has gained strokes putting in three of his five trips to Bay Hill, so heres hoping he can unlock those feels on the greens this week. Max Homa and Talor Gooch. Davis Riley Its like a rite of passage across the United States. Written by Jason Rouslin and released on Sunday evenings. Hes gained 10-plus strokes to the field five times during that run, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Highlighted by The Bear Trap, one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on tour, the winning score of this event is routinely in single digits under-par. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. We picked our first winner of the new season at the CJ Cup, with Lee Alldrick correctly predicting Rory McIlroys victory at Congaree at 7-1. 2023 Sony Open First Round Leader Picks: Can J.T. Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industrys leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Homa and Gooch are great friends off the golf course, and that can help throughout the week. Gehman: Brian Harman (35-1, DraftKings) Harman is one of the most fascinating players in this field. DraftKings Round 4 Showdown Golf Cheat Sheet: Best PGA DFS Picks for the Genesis Invitational | Patrick Cantlay. Course Fit ( compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes such as driving distance to predict who performs well at each course DataGolf): 1. Cole was impressive and a great story last week, but theres a big red flag in his stat profile. How to Sports Bet 101: What is a Point Spread? Hes been competitive in the toughest fields of the year and will now get to battle a much weaker composition of his peers. I think theyre all viable plays, but the rest of the field is justifiably a tier behind them. Six straight made cuts for the Belgian, including four finishes of 12th or better. Aaron Rai ($7,700 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). Ryan Palmer has a new partner this time around after playing with Jon Rahm for the past few seasons (and Jordan Spieth before him). His perception has been buoyed by two straight third-place finishes at the Sony Open and American Express. The PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida this week for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained 8.42 strokes putting at the Honda Classic. Hes also likely to lose a lot of strokes puttinglike he did at Riviera (losing seven strokes/putting), making it 17 straight events losing with that club. . Grant has quietly flashed brilliance this year, earning a T-25 at Torrey Pines and a T-20 at Pebble Beach. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org. It wont be all fun and games this week because PGA National is one of the toughest tests in all of golf. Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Collin Morikawa (18-1, DraftKings) The results may not reflect it, but he seems to be rounding back into form. Listen to the Twilight 9 podcast! With that in mind, here are our 13 best bets ( odds via DraftKings) to hoist that gold trophy. Kramer Hickok ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel). Our experts, as always, are in search of a little more value down the odds board, however. He tends to thrive when conditions get more difficult, which will be expected at PGA National this week. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. Noren has missed the last two cuts at elevated events by a total of three strokes. Released Wednesday. RELATED: Here are the odds for every player in the field this week at the 2023 Honda Classic, Robby Shelton ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,700 FanDuel). RELATED: Honda Classic picks 2023: Our experts love this sneaky good iron player at PGA National, Joseph Bramlett ($7,500 DraftKings | $9,300 FanDuel). Kuchar has also gained strokes in all three tee-to-green stats in both starts this season but has uncharacteristically lost strokes putting. Okay, I admit that it reminds me of the sixth at Hazeltine National, another Trent Jones product, but I don't think Wilson picked Trent's pocket on this one, as both courses were built about the same time, in the early 1960s. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Brent Grant ($6,400 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel). Morikawa is going to contend often this season with this stat profile. The Players Championship will be contested next week without its biggest draw. Rounds 1 and 3: Best ball His last eight starts have all been T-13 or better with five top-five finishes. Hes been good not great, but we are being asked to pay for greatness at this price tag. He finished his Korn Ferry Tour season with a win, a third and T-10 all within his last seven starts. Play with trusted, licensed operators. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts! Min Woo Lee hasnt played an official PGA Tour event since the Open Championship (T-21) but has been crushing the DP World Tour as of late. 13 in the , he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for Jon Rahm ($11,500 DraftKings | $12,200 FanDuel). Golf Digest - Joel Beall 2d The PGA Tours designated events for 2024 will feature limited fields and no cuts after the tours Policy Board voted to approve a new structure for the tournaments in a Tuesday night meeting. Hes gaining a staggering 3.25 strokes per round over his past 36 rounds, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. 6-keys: media/spln/golf/reg/free/stories, at So which 2023 American Express picks should you target? Corey Conners ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). For our complete review, visit Bay Hill's Places to Play page here. The Scotsman ranks seventh in the field this week for Opportunities Gained over the last two months and this is the exact style of course where Knox can start taking these opportunities. Betting Preview for the Euro Tour: A quick hitter article for some Euro Tour action provided by both Ben Rasa and Jason Rouslin. BetMGM + Stokastic Promo Get 1 Free Month! 1:10 am ET, be sure to check out the PGA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine golf expert Mike McClure, You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McClure's 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks, sleepers, head-to-head matchups, best bets, and his top one and done pick, You can see the rest of McClure's Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bet picks at SportsLine, You can only see his Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets at SportsLine, Visit SportsLine to see McClure's 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets, all from the expert who's up over $9,600 since the PGA Tour restart, See the full Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here, Spieth among many chasing at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to not play Players Championship, WATCH: Viktor Hovland drains ace at Arnold Palmer, How to watch 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Report: Pebble Beach will be designated event in 2024, Rahm leads (again) at Bay Hill after Round 1, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational props, expert picks, Spieth among chasers at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to skip 2023 Players Championship, Report: PGA Tour to reduce fields of designated events, Kirk breaks 8-year drought with emotional Honda win. Those who can avoid disaster and grind their way through 72 holes will give themselves a chance to hoist the trophy on Sunday night. World No. The 26-year-old hasn't been great in this event the past two years, but he did finish third in 2020. Its a stat line that is full of red flags. GolfDigest panel: Will Zalatoris (4), Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa Popular Types of Golf Betting Odds Types of bets and how to read the odds His ball-striking is elite on this circuit, but hes not reliant on that aspect of his game. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. GOLF DIGEST MAY EARN A PORTION OF SALES FROM PRODUCTS THAT ARE PURCHASED THROUGH OUR SITE AS PART OF OUR AFFILIATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. The odds are a bit too long as a result. The ball striking? Anyone who backs one of his 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational sleepers could hit it big. He was T3 and only two strokes back entering the finale. ET, with world No. Hes gained strokes with the flatstick in six of his last seven measured events. TPC Summerlin 8. The only thing worrisome about this play is he hasnt truly contended on the PGA Tour yet, even last week after he grabbed a share of the first round lead. Strokes gained/approach is also incredibly valuableagain, only six other courses were more correlated to success. Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) After slotting at No. Matchup Results from the Bermuda Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Rodgers (-125) over S.H. Weekly Cheatsheets: If you are already an Awesemo.com frequent visitor, you know about these quick hitter cheatsheets that give you some ideas on who to play each week. Another team with great chemistry. Niemann played at Harbour Town last week and tied for 12th. Here are the stats you should be paying attention to. GOLF DIGEST MAY EARN A PORTION OF SALES FROM PRODUCTS THAT ARE PURCHASED THROUGH OUR SITE AS PART OF OUR AFFILIATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. Recent Form Cheatsheet: The entire fields current form, going back as far as 10 weeks, and synopsis provided by Jason Rousiln. Already one of the most prestigious events on the schedule, the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational gets official elevated status and a $20 million purse. 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am First Round Leader Picks: Does Matthew NeSmith Still Own Pebble Beach? Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) After slotting at No. Luke List Anytime (every time?) Parlay Calculator, Copyright USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire 2023. But hes certainly gaining on it, with three top-25 finishes in his last seven starts on tour. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald's PGA picks and analysis. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. All rights reserved. Still, he hasn't played in this tournament since 2017 and has missed the cut both previous times in La Quinta. Get 50% off your first week or month with promo code SCORE, In-Season Data & Tools (may require NFL Express or higher), Draft Season Data & Tools (may require Draft Kit). Visit SportsLine to see McClure's 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational best bets, all from the expert who's up over $9,600 since the PGA Tour restart, and find out. Jhonattan Vegas ($8,600 DraftKings | $10,100 FanDuel). WebLatest golf news from PGA TOUR, PGA TOUR Champions, KornFerry TOUR Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Russell Knox (+750, DraftKings) Knox comes into this event ranked 18th in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week so its not surprising to see that he already has three top-10 finishes to his name here at El Camaleon. Will Zalatoris tees off on the tenth during the third round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament. The other was Stuart Appleby, who won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2004, 2005 and 2006. His game can clearly travel and his upside is immense. Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Collin Morikawa (18-1, DraftKings) The results havent been close to elite in the swing season, but thats all 100 percent putting related. But the hole I like best at Bay Hill is the par-4 eighth, a lovely dogleg-right with a diagonal green perched above a small circular pond. While he still has work to do, many fully exempt members would love to trade places with that position, but it projects to improve at Bay Hill where he placed T17 in his last trip in 2019. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Per stats guru Justin Ray, only two other players have pulled off the rare accomplishment in the past 40 years on tour. World No. RELATED: What to make of LIV Golfs tumultuous inaugural season. 7 and sank one of the most beautiful aces youll ever see. Hes also got decent history at Mayakoba, having finished T-3 here two years ago. Caddie: Jason Day (45-1, DraftKings) Theres something quietly brewing right now with the former World No. His outright plays feature three major longshots who come in at more than 60-1. RELATED: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our betting panel has cashed three straight outright winnersand now we have a consensus bet. Montgomerys putter has cooled off, and hes been exposed a bit in the elevated events. The second-place finish is the Europeans fourth top-12 in his last six events. Reunion Resort & Golf Club 7. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. What 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bets should you target? Released Tuesday. PGA Tour odds, lines, picks and Lee (DraftKings) There are exciting things happening with Days game right now, primarily his significant improvement on approach shots. Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. This site is strictly intended for adults (18+) 2023 Puerto Rico Open odds, field. TPC Scottsdale 3. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts! Sepp Straka (T-35, T-30, T-3), Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc. Heres what we know: Hes likely to be a great ball-striker, like he was at Riviera, where he gained 13 strokes in the ball-striking categories, and he has gained in 19 of his past 22 measured starts. These odds, in a tournament where we typically see a few Rileys constant is as a stripe show on approach, so our speculation relies on a hot putter to disrupt. There is trouble lurking off nearly every tee shot, and youll certainly see a few big numbers this week. At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. He gained strokes across the board and has shown significant improvements with the putter in recent months. Before you lock in any 2023 American Express picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald. The model also included J.T. Rare company, to say the least. One of McClure's favorite prop bet picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 is veteran Jason Day to finish in the top-20 of the final leaderboard at The Honda Classic is the first stop, and although. There are more questions than answers coming from the Thomas camp right now. Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) After slotting at No. Play with friends. Released Monday night/Tuesday Morning. You probably guessed that one of them was Tiger Woods, who did it an absurd six separate times, including two four-peats. We run 1000s simulations for every PGA Tour event to predict the most likely outcomes and find value against the sportsbooks. I worry about him losing five strokes on the putting surfaces, but his clubhead speed and newfound confidence can be a difference-maker this week. 2023 Genesis Invitational Golf DFS Fades & Pivots: Whats Wrong With Tom Kim? Though playing from the fairway is important, the course regression model at RickRunGood.com indicates that clubhead speed is more indicative of successonly six other courses were more correlated to success last year. Trinity Forest Golf Club, 3. Learn the game and know the odds. Despite the struggles, hes not that far off. , he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for 21st with a Sunday 73. 2023 Honda Classic PGA DFS Preview: Can Sungjae Im Bounce Back as Top Stud of the Field? One surprising pick from McDonald this week: The expert is strongly fading Schauffele, who could struggle even if he is healthy. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood. Now hell travel to PGA National, where hes gained strokes putting in three straight trips. The Korn Ferry trademark is also a registered trademark, and is used in the Korn Ferry Tour logo with permission. Hell look to find some putting improvements this week on the greens at PGA National. Course History Cheatsheet: A look at the entire fields history at the current weeks course. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood. If he can just stop losing a billion strokes off the tee each week, hell become a popular play again. 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