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This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. View our Privacy PolicyandTerms & Conditions, TheLondonEconomic.com Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle. Journalism in Britain is under threat. However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon.. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. READ MORE: Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Which party will you vote for? The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Energy & utilities. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. All Rights Reserved. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. But we can't do it without you. The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. SNP MP apologises over ignorant racial slur, Boris Johnson may have misled parliament on several occasions, Billionaires should not exist Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders issues stark warning to Brits over NHS, Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives, Elevenses: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Early 2021. Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. . This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. Easy-to-digest video clips. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. You can also SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER . Trump. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. Business & professional services. Question asked is stated in notes field. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. ", Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. The commissions interim findings most notably increase the number of seats in the South East of England (+7), London (+3), East Anglia (+3), and the South West (+3), at the expense of Wales (-8), the West Midlands (-3), the North East -3), the North West of England (-3), and Scotland (-2). Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. However support for Scottish independence grew significantly during the 1980s, particularly as Margaret Thatchers tenure in office continued. It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. conducted. independence? Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. Question asked. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.. Dates. The poll, commissioned by WalesOnline has found support for the Tories in Wales now sits at just 19%. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: should not be a referendum on Scottish Stay informed. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. A Y Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. YouGov surveyed 1,043 Tory members and found that 60% said they'd vote for Truss, compared to 26% who opted for Sunak, the former chancellor whose resignation helped precipitate Johnson's . However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Latest news on Scottish Opinion Polls, including political opinion polls, voting intention polls, and opinion poll analysis. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. In response to the Redfield and Wilton poll, Scots Labour peer Lord Foulkes tweeted: "SNP on the slide. In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. ), Lord Ashcroft poll, reported in Holyrood on 13 Feb 2023Full results. The end of 2021, showed how quickly politics can change. Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". This analysis has drawn on the latest opinion polls that were specific to Wales and Scotland respectively. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. 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