Bellwether 2016 Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Enter Donald Trump. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. First, what are bellwether counties? They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. These are the bellwether counties. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Have you looked at the results of these counties? It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. 12. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. 108,000 people. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. hide caption. (i.e. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. It almost became religious.". Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Team up with others in your region, and help out by What, if anything, did we miss? "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. "They followed through the whole four years. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). 11. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. It gets a lot more interesting. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. ET. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Their hopes are real. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. i.e. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president 10. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. That's 14 in a row. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Dont simply gloss over this. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Contributors wanted We believe this was a mistake. Ron Elving . "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Arapahoe County. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. They're just facts about the vote. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results This county voted with the popular vote each time. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. 8. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off.